Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Spanish Banks and Unemployment
It is sad to see viable small businesses in Spain laying off employees because their banks have called in the loans necessary for operating capital as reported in the New York Times Sunday. This makes unemployment worse and recovery impossible. No amount of austerity will solve this problem. The banks do not require bailouts, they need a change in the rules so that failed loans (mortgages for real estate) are not a charge against their capital. There is so way that a bank can stay viable with a historic 20 to 30 percent change in real estate values. These loans have to be removed from the books as was done in Iceland. Government austerity will only make the problem worse.
Monday, May 28, 2012
Financial Whales
While
JP Morgan Chase recently lost two or three billion dollars, Boaz Weinstein of
the $5.5 billion Saba hedge fund made an astronomical sum. What useful service did Weinstein perform to
earn this kind of money? None! He observed a price difference between a
credit derivative index and the market it was supposed to track. The aberration was caused by a trader for
Morgan called the London Whale. The Whale
kept selling and Weinstein began buying. Like in poker, someone who makes a
mistake often doubles down to scare off competitors, but the Whale did not
scare Weinstein. (NYT May 27, 2012) You need a lot of capital to
play this game such as Morgan has as one of the nation's largest banks. The
Whale lost. Should we care? Morgan points out that their loss is a tiny
fraction of their assets. This is one
meaning of “too big to fail.” Still, it
was just this kind of trading that made the recent financial crisis a crisis.
Mr. Weinstein has been banned
from the Bellagio Casino in Vegas. In
this case, the Casino should be banned and banks should not be allowed to make
such bets (Volker Rule). These brilliant
minds should find something else to do with their smarts like making useful
products and investing in plant and equipment that provide jobs.
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